--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/rachaelhinkle/Dropbox/ElevatorEffect/PanelEffects/JLC_Replication_Data/H
> inkleNelsonHazelton_JLC2019_replication.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  25 Jan 2019, 13:35:23

. 
. use "HinkleNelsonHazelton_JLC2019_replication_data.dta", clear

. 
. tab split_outcome if unified == 1

split_outco |
         me |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      3,747       83.90       83.90
          1 |        719       16.10      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      4,466      100.00

. tab split_outcome if unified == 0

split_outco |
         me |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      8,902       83.56       83.56
          1 |      1,751       16.44      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     10,653      100.00

. drop if split_outcome == 1
(2470 observations deleted)

. 
. ***Panel Effects Exist in our Data
. tab dv2b unified, col

+-------------------+
| Key               |
|-------------------|
|     frequency     |
| column percentage |
+-------------------+

           |        unified
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     5,055      2,550 |     7,605 
           |     56.78      68.05 |     60.12 
-----------+----------------------+----------
         1 |     3,847      1,197 |     5,044 
           |     43.22      31.95 |     39.88 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     8,902      3,747 |    12,649 
           |    100.00     100.00 |    100.00 


. 
. *Calculate how many fewer counter-ideological rulings there would be
. *if split panels acted the same as unfied panels 
. display 8903 * 0.11
979.33

. 
. tab unified

    unified |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      8,902       70.38       70.38
          1 |      3,747       29.62      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |     12,649      100.00

. drop if unified == 1
(3747 observations deleted)

. 
. 
. *** Summary Statistics
. sum cjAge probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCoTen ebDist certDist

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       cjAge |      8902    63.37531    9.642335         38         93
probFutPanel |      8902    .2022861    .1409686          0          1
  sameCityCJ |      8902    .3476747     .613204          0          2
     cjCoTen |      8902    7.189283    7.947389          0         49
      ebDist |      8902    .2171183    .2120321          0      1.091
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    certDist |      8902    .2554745     .161139     .00004    .875578

. 
. *Model: Results in Table 3
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4948.5262  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4945.5641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -4945.564  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(31)     =    2285.23
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -4945.564                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1877

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |  -.0077454    .002196    -3.53   0.000    -.0120496   -.0034412
     cjSenior |   .0233648   .0491631     0.48   0.635     -.072993    .1197227
 probFutPanel |  -.1190541    .195621    -0.61   0.543    -.5024643     .264356
   sameCityCJ |  -.0008316   .0294873    -0.03   0.978    -.0586257    .0569626
     cjCirDes |   -.094121   .1457443    -0.65   0.518    -.3797746    .1915326
         cjDJ |   -.012359   .0734499    -0.17   0.866    -.1563182    .1316002
      cjCoTen |   .0083471     .00207     4.03   0.000       .00429    .0124041
     cjProsPD |   .0437802     .03611     1.21   0.225    -.0269941    .1145546
        cjT14 |   .0725109   .0319641     2.27   0.023     .0098624    .1351594
 cjLongestTen |  -.0436579   .0408485    -1.07   0.285    -.1237195    .0364038
cjShortestTen |   .0113108   .0402689     0.28   0.779    -.0676149    .0902364
       ebDist |   .2063326   .1109391     1.86   0.063     -.011104    .4237692
     certDist |   .5720754   .1472372     3.89   0.000     .2834958     .860655
  alignEnBanc |   .3003487   .1533357     1.96   0.050    -.0001838    .6008813
     alignSct |   .2151763    .203616     1.06   0.291    -.1839038    .6142563
    cjAlignLC |   1.062957   .0583075    18.23   0.000     .9486768    1.177238
       amicus |  -.0251908   .0930784    -0.27   0.787    -.2076211    .1572396
 civil_rights |   .0315612   .0344766     0.92   0.360    -.0360117    .0991341
   per_curiam |   .0429264   .0516787     0.83   0.406     -.058362    .1442148
        juris |  -.2630662   .0374931    -7.02   0.000    -.3365514   -.1895811
              |
      circuit |
           1  |   .0955327   .1099136     0.87   0.385    -.1198941    .3109594
           2  |  -.0473168   .0726617    -0.65   0.515    -.1897311    .0950975
           3  |   .0901229   .0845412     1.07   0.286    -.0755749    .2558206
           4  |  -.0000487   .0793199    -0.00   1.000    -.1555129    .1554156
           5  |   .0455926   .0555522     0.82   0.412    -.0632878    .1544729
           6  |  -.0275504   .0632413    -0.44   0.663     -.151501    .0964003
           7  |  -.0440706   .0670911    -0.66   0.511    -.1755668    .0874255
           8  |  -.0574669   .0628066    -0.91   0.360    -.1805655    .0656316
          10  |   .1263552   .0663387     1.90   0.057    -.0036662    .2563766
          11  |   .1186554   .0768835     1.54   0.123    -.0320335    .2693443
          12  |  -.2757904   .0974788    -2.83   0.005    -.4668453   -.0847356
              |
        _cons |  -.3872208   .1513867    -2.56   0.011    -.6839333   -.0905083
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store mod0

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
        mod0 |   8902    -6088.18   -4945.564     32     9955.128    10182.14
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. *ssc install pre
. pre mod0

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by  39.82%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     3,791      1,264 |     5,055 
         1 |     1,051      2,796 |     3,847 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,842      4,060 |     8,902 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 75% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 73% of the time

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |       12.44      1     0.0084 #
  (2)  |        0.23      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.00      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.42      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.03      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       16.26      1     0.0011 #
  (8)  |        1.47      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        5.15      1     0.4660 #
  (10) |        1.14      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.08      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.46      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       15.10      1     0.0020 #
  (14) |        3.84      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        1.12      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      332.34      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.07      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.84      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.69      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       49.23      1     0.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     2034.78     20     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen c.cjAlignLC##c.ebDist c.cjAlignLC##c.certDist amicus civil_rights p
> er_curiam juris  b9.circuit 

note: cjAlignLC omitted because of collinearity
Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4948.5262  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4945.5641  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -4945.564  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(31)     =    2285.23
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -4945.564                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1877

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
                 cjAge |  -.0077454    .002196    -3.53   0.000    -.0120496   -.0034412
              cjSenior |   .0233648   .0491631     0.48   0.635     -.072993    .1197227
          probFutPanel |  -.1190541    .195621    -0.61   0.543    -.5024643     .264356
            sameCityCJ |  -.0008316   .0294873    -0.03   0.978    -.0586257    .0569626
              cjCirDes |   -.094121   .1457443    -0.65   0.518    -.3797746    .1915326
                  cjDJ |   -.012359   .0734499    -0.17   0.866    -.1563182    .1316002
               cjCoTen |   .0083471     .00207     4.03   0.000       .00429    .0124041
              cjProsPD |   .0437802     .03611     1.21   0.225    -.0269941    .1145546
                 cjT14 |   .0725109   .0319641     2.27   0.023     .0098624    .1351594
          cjLongestTen |  -.0436579   .0408485    -1.07   0.285    -.1237195    .0364038
         cjShortestTen |   .0113108   .0402689     0.28   0.779    -.0676149    .0902364
             cjAlignLC |   1.062957   .0583075    18.23   0.000     .9486768    1.177238
                ebDist |   .2063326   .1109391     1.86   0.063     -.011104    .4237692
                       |
  c.cjAlignLC#c.ebDist |   .3003487   .1533357     1.96   0.050    -.0001838    .6008813
                       |
             cjAlignLC |          0  (omitted)
              certDist |   .5720754   .1472372     3.89   0.000     .2834958     .860655
                       |
c.cjAlignLC#c.certDist |   .2151763    .203616     1.06   0.291    -.1839038    .6142563
                       |
                amicus |  -.0251908   .0930784    -0.27   0.787    -.2076211    .1572396
          civil_rights |   .0315612   .0344766     0.92   0.360    -.0360117    .0991341
            per_curiam |   .0429264   .0516787     0.83   0.406     -.058362    .1442148
                 juris |  -.2630662   .0374931    -7.02   0.000    -.3365514   -.1895811
                       |
               circuit |
                    1  |   .0955327   .1099136     0.87   0.385    -.1198941    .3109594
                    2  |  -.0473168   .0726617    -0.65   0.515    -.1897311    .0950975
                    3  |   .0901229   .0845412     1.07   0.286    -.0755749    .2558206
                    4  |  -.0000487   .0793199    -0.00   1.000    -.1555129    .1554156
                    5  |   .0455926   .0555522     0.82   0.412    -.0632878    .1544729
                    6  |  -.0275504   .0632413    -0.44   0.663     -.151501    .0964003
                    7  |  -.0440706   .0670911    -0.66   0.511    -.1755668    .0874255
                    8  |  -.0574669   .0628066    -0.91   0.360    -.1805655    .0656316
                   10  |   .1263552   .0663387     1.90   0.057    -.0036662    .2563766
                   11  |   .1186554   .0768835     1.54   0.123    -.0320335    .2693443
                   12  |  -.2757904   .0974788    -2.83   0.005    -.4668453   -.0847356
                       |
                 _cons |  -.3872208   .1513867    -2.56   0.011    -.6839333   -.0905083
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store mod

. 
. ***Robustness Checks
. ** FN23: No fixed effects for circuit
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4961.3804  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4958.7022  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4958.7022  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(20)     =    2258.96
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -4958.7022                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1855

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |  -.0088932   .0021623    -4.11   0.000    -.0131312   -.0046552
     cjSenior |     .03924   .0487746     0.80   0.421    -.0563564    .1348364
 probFutPanel |   .0202234   .1227955     0.16   0.869    -.2204513    .2608981
   sameCityCJ |   -.052076   .0244673    -2.13   0.033    -.1000311    -.004121
     cjCirDes |  -.0424896   .1407052    -0.30   0.763    -.3182667    .2332876
         cjDJ |   .0152658   .0679699     0.22   0.822    -.1179527    .1484843
      cjCoTen |   .0089687    .002035     4.41   0.000     .0049803    .0129572
     cjProsPD |   .0261094    .035137     0.74   0.457    -.0427579    .0949766
        cjT14 |   .0695894   .0301729     2.31   0.021     .0104515    .1287272
 cjLongestTen |  -.0581338   .0401685    -1.45   0.148    -.1368626    .0205949
cjShortestTen |  -.0086205   .0398682    -0.22   0.829    -.0867608    .0695198
       ebDist |   .1947121   .1097552     1.77   0.076    -.0204042    .4098284
     certDist |   .5601722   .1450261     3.86   0.000     .2759261    .8444182
  alignEnBanc |   .3036951   .1524407     1.99   0.046     .0049168    .6024734
     alignSct |   .1283367   .2003951     0.64   0.522    -.2644306    .5211039
    cjAlignLC |   1.085962   .0574755    18.89   0.000     .9733124    1.198612
       amicus |  -.0445786   .0924275    -0.48   0.630    -.2257331    .1365759
 civil_rights |   .0299475   .0342426     0.87   0.382    -.0371668    .0970618
   per_curiam |   .0476706   .0511663     0.93   0.352    -.0526134    .1479546
        juris |  -.2417176   .0335815    -7.20   0.000    -.3075361    -.175899
        _cons |  -.3203698   .1450433    -2.21   0.027    -.6046495     -.03609
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |       16.92      1     0.0008 #
  (2)  |        0.65      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.03      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        4.53      1     0.6661 #
  (5)  |        0.09      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.05      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       19.42      1     0.0002 #
  (8)  |        0.55      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        5.32      1     0.4218 #
  (10) |        2.09      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.05      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.15      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       14.92      1     0.0022 #
  (14) |        3.97      1     0.9269 #
  (15) |        0.41      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      357.00      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.23      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.76      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.87      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       51.81      1     0.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     2061.50     20     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *FN24 and Table 5, model with additional variables 
. probit dv2b cirDissRateLag3 cjAge cjAge2 cjSenior caseload100  probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCir
> Des cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD majSubExp cjT14 majT14 cjLongestTen cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDi
> st certDist alignEnBanc alignSct  amicus civil_rights per_curiam juris  b9.circuit 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5818.5361  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4709.8565  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4706.8472  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4706.8471  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8509
                                                  LR chi2(36)     =    2223.38
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -4706.8471                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1911

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
cirDissRateLag3 |  -.6527867   .3151259    -2.07   0.038    -1.270422   -.0351514
          cjAge |   .0143371   .0180607     0.79   0.427    -.0210613    .0497355
         cjAge2 |  -.0001832   .0001432    -1.28   0.201    -.0004638    .0000974
       cjSenior |   .0616511   .0537345     1.15   0.251    -.0436667    .1669688
    caseload100 |   .0113918   .0187412     0.61   0.543    -.0253404    .0481239
   probFutPanel |  -.1724248   .2252799    -0.77   0.444    -.6139654    .2691157
     sameCityCJ |  -.0052208   .0305865    -0.17   0.864    -.0651692    .0547276
       cjCirDes |  -.1139708   .1501261    -0.76   0.448    -.4082126    .1802709
           cjDJ |  -.0302394   .0782877    -0.39   0.699    -.1836804    .1232016
        cjCoTen |   .0086081   .0021206     4.06   0.000     .0044518    .0127644
       cjProsPD |   .0526437   .0373514     1.41   0.159    -.0205636     .125851
      majSubExp |   .0148174   .0313542     0.47   0.637    -.0466357    .0762705
          cjT14 |   .0700662   .0327882     2.14   0.033     .0058024      .13433
         majT14 |  -.0063813   .0353703    -0.18   0.857    -.0757057    .0629432
   cjLongestTen |  -.0419016   .0418243    -1.00   0.316    -.1238757    .0400726
  cjShortestTen |    .018987   .0416916     0.46   0.649    -.0627271     .100701
      cjAlignLC |   1.076598     .06049    17.80   0.000     .9580397    1.195156
         ebDist |   .1913573   .1142123     1.68   0.094    -.0324948    .4152093
       certDist |   .6210304   .1532209     4.05   0.000      .320723    .9213378
    alignEnBanc |    .336408   .1586788     2.12   0.034     .0254034    .6474127
       alignSct |   .1279856   .2113311     0.61   0.545    -.2862158     .542187
         amicus |  -.0132681   .0940398    -0.14   0.888    -.1975827    .1710465
   civil_rights |   .0244101   .0350216     0.70   0.486     -.044231    .0930511
     per_curiam |   .0325171   .0532667     0.61   0.542    -.0718837    .1369178
          juris |  -.2885904   .0503835    -5.73   0.000    -.3873402   -.1898405
                |
        circuit |
             1  |   .0513047   .1248521     0.41   0.681     -.193401    .2960104
             2  |  -.0708675   .0778222    -0.91   0.362    -.2233963    .0816613
             3  |   .1142148   .0870938     1.31   0.190    -.0564858    .2849155
             4  |  -.0163695   .0821685    -0.20   0.842    -.1774168    .1446778
             5  |  -.0276855   .0655522    -0.42   0.673    -.1561655    .1007945
             6  |  -.0218087   .0657689    -0.33   0.740    -.1507134    .1070959
             7  |  -.1027664   .0759784    -1.35   0.176    -.2516814    .0461487
             8  |  -.1118916   .0717615    -1.56   0.119    -.2525415    .0287583
            10  |    .069681    .074936     0.93   0.352    -.0771908    .2165529
            11  |   .0780545   .0960158     0.81   0.416    -.1101329     .266242
            12  |  -.2261852    .105551    -2.14   0.032    -.4330613   -.0193091
                |
          _cons |  -.9384407   .5799211    -1.62   0.106    -2.075065    .1981837
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store modRobust

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
   modRobust |   8509   -5818.536   -4706.847     37     9487.694    9748.503
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. pre modRobust

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by  39.85%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     3,645      1,190 |     4,835 
         1 |     1,020      2,654 |     3,674 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,665      3,844 |     8,509 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 75% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 72% of the time

. test cirDissRateLag3 cjAge cjAge2 cjSenior caseload100  probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjD
> J cjCoTen cjProsPD majSubExp cjT14 majT14 cjLongestTen cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDist cert
> Dist alignEnBanc alignSct amicus civil_rights per_curiam juris , mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cirDissRateLag3 = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]cjAge2 = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]caseload100 = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]majSubExp = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]majT14 = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (21)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (22)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (23)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (24)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (25)  [dv2b]juris = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |        4.29      1     0.9578 #
  (2)  |        0.63      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        1.64      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        1.32      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.59      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |        0.03      1     1.0000 #
  (8)  |        0.58      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        0.15      1     1.0000 #
  (10) |       16.48      1     0.0012 #
  (11) |        1.99      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        0.22      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |        4.57      1     0.8151 #
  (14) |        0.03      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        1.00      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |        0.21      1     1.0000 #
  (17) |      316.77      1     0.0000 #
  (18) |        2.81      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |       16.43      1     0.0013 #
  (20) |        4.49      1     0.8500 #
  (21) |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (22) |        0.02      1     1.0000 #
  (23) |        0.49      1     1.0000 #
  (24) |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (25) |       32.81      1     0.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     1970.47     25     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *FN 24, Model adding just Age squared
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit cjAge2

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4948.2919  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4945.2761  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -4945.276  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(32)     =    2285.81
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -4945.276                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1877

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |    .005405   .0174677     0.31   0.757     -.028831     .039641
     cjSenior |   .0360524   .0519298     0.69   0.488    -.0657282    .1378329
 probFutPanel |  -.1191165   .1955928    -0.61   0.543    -.5024714    .2642383
   sameCityCJ |   .0004534   .0295355     0.02   0.988    -.0574351    .0583418
     cjCirDes |  -.0910347   .1457362    -0.62   0.532    -.3766723     .194603
         cjDJ |  -.0087665   .0735972    -0.12   0.905    -.1530144    .1354814
      cjCoTen |   .0083079    .002071     4.01   0.000     .0042489     .012367
     cjProsPD |   .0420344   .0361846     1.16   0.245     -.028886    .1129549
        cjT14 |   .0731905   .0319758     2.29   0.022     .0105191    .1358618
 cjLongestTen |  -.0408515   .0410159    -1.00   0.319    -.1212412    .0395382
cjShortestTen |   .0155468   .0406544     0.38   0.702    -.0641343     .095228
       ebDist |   .2050773   .1109488     1.85   0.065    -.0123783    .4225329
     certDist |   .5718961   .1472386     3.88   0.000     .2833137    .8604786
  alignEnBanc |    .302219   .1533427     1.97   0.049     .0016729    .6027651
     alignSct |   .2132063   .2036314     1.05   0.295    -.1859039    .6123165
    cjAlignLC |   1.062775   .0583049    18.23   0.000     .9484996    1.177051
       amicus |   -.025189   .0930886    -0.27   0.787    -.2076394    .1572614
 civil_rights |    .031757   .0344792     0.92   0.357     -.035821     .099335
   per_curiam |    .041995   .0516916     0.81   0.417    -.0593187    .1433087
        juris |  -.2622358   .0375076    -6.99   0.000    -.3357493   -.1887223
              |
      circuit |
           1  |   .0943614   .1099307     0.86   0.391    -.1210988    .3098216
           2  |  -.0491881   .0727134    -0.68   0.499    -.1917038    .0933275
           3  |    .090599   .0845318     1.07   0.284    -.0750802    .2562783
           4  |  -.0002502   .0793085    -0.00   0.997     -.155692    .1551916
           5  |   .0473015   .0555923     0.85   0.395    -.0616575    .1562605
           6  |  -.0276412   .0632404    -0.44   0.662      -.15159    .0963076
           7  |  -.0437235   .0670884    -0.65   0.515    -.1752144    .0877673
           8  |  -.0559229    .062857    -0.89   0.374    -.1791203    .0672746
          10  |   .1260128   .0663282     1.90   0.057    -.0039881    .2560137
          11  |    .121277   .0769608     1.58   0.115    -.0295634    .2721173
          12  |  -.2769082    .097476    -2.84   0.005    -.4679576   -.0858587
              |
       cjAge2 |  -.0001048   .0001381    -0.76   0.448    -.0003754    .0001658
        _cons |  -.7957515   .5592159    -1.42   0.155    -1.891794    .3002915
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   8902    -6088.18   -4945.276     33     9956.552    10190.66
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris cjAge2, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0
 (21)  [dv2b]cjAge2 = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |        0.10      1     1.0000 #
  (2)  |        0.48      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.00      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.39      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.01      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       16.09      1     0.0013 #
  (8)  |        1.35      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        5.24      1     0.4637 #
  (10) |        0.99      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.15      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.42      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       15.09      1     0.0022 #
  (14) |        3.88      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        1.10      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      332.26      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.07      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.85      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.66      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       48.88      1     0.0000 #
  (21) |        0.58      1     1.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     2034.85     21     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *FN 24 Model adding just dissent rate lagged
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit cirDissRateLag3

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -5818.5361  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4710.8877  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4707.9885  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4707.9884  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8509
                                                  LR chi2(32)     =    2221.10
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -4707.9884                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1909

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
          cjAge |  -.0085575   .0022828    -3.75   0.000    -.0130318   -.0040832
       cjSenior |   .0386369   .0504622     0.77   0.444    -.0602672    .1375409
   probFutPanel |  -.1512211   .2231669    -0.68   0.498    -.5886202     .286178
     sameCityCJ |  -.0080293   .0305166    -0.26   0.792    -.0678409    .0517822
       cjCirDes |  -.1106172   .1495133    -0.74   0.459    -.4036579    .1824236
           cjDJ |  -.0322849   .0774311    -0.42   0.677    -.1840472    .1194773
        cjCoTen |   .0087121   .0021028     4.14   0.000     .0045907    .0128335
       cjProsPD |   .0555482   .0372453     1.49   0.136    -.0174511    .1285476
          cjT14 |   .0684888   .0327228     2.09   0.036     .0043532    .1326244
   cjLongestTen |  -.0469569   .0416575    -1.13   0.260    -.1286042    .0346903
  cjShortestTen |   .0124418   .0412712     0.30   0.763    -.0684482    .0933318
         ebDist |   .1981943   .1139253     1.74   0.082    -.0250953    .4214838
       certDist |   .6231733   .1528763     4.08   0.000     .3235412    .9228054
    alignEnBanc |   .3262861   .1581725     2.06   0.039     .0162738    .6362984
       alignSct |    .127834   .2110911     0.61   0.545    -.2858971     .541565
      cjAlignLC |   1.078679    .060422    17.85   0.000     .9602539    1.197104
         amicus |  -.0121762   .0940195    -0.13   0.897    -.1964509    .1720986
   civil_rights |   .0251602   .0349534     0.72   0.472    -.0433473    .0936677
     per_curiam |   .0335415   .0532258     0.63   0.529    -.0707792    .1378622
          juris |  -.2716615   .0389321    -6.98   0.000    -.3479671   -.1953559
                |
        circuit |
             1  |   .0415665   .1230668     0.34   0.736    -.1996401     .282773
             2  |  -.0602696    .076454    -0.79   0.431    -.2101167    .0895776
             3  |   .1088189   .0862828     1.26   0.207    -.0602922      .27793
             4  |  -.0141846   .0818796    -0.17   0.862    -.1746657    .1462965
             5  |  -.0185041   .0632849    -0.29   0.770    -.1425404    .1055321
             6  |  -.0214668   .0655554    -0.33   0.743     -.149953    .1070194
             7  |  -.1005016   .0744758    -1.35   0.177    -.2464714    .0454682
             8  |  -.1154968   .0698913    -1.65   0.098    -.2524812    .0214877
            10  |   .0631509   .0727603     0.87   0.385    -.0794568    .2057585
            11  |   .0963058   .0905932     1.06   0.288    -.0812535    .2738651
            12  |  -.2392922   .1016005    -2.36   0.019    -.4384255    -.040159
                |
cirDissRateLag3 |  -.6118143   .3123897    -1.96   0.050    -1.224087    .0004583
          _cons |  -.2204691    .168111    -1.31   0.190    -.5499605    .1090223
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   8509   -5818.536   -4707.988     33     9481.977     9714.59
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris cirDissRateLag3, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0
 (21)  [dv2b]cirDissRateLag3 = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |       14.05      1     0.0037 #
  (2)  |        0.59      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.46      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.07      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.55      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.17      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       17.17      1     0.0007 #
  (8)  |        2.22      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        4.38      1     0.7633 #
  (10) |        1.27      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.09      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.03      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       16.62      1     0.0010 #
  (14) |        4.26      1     0.8217 #
  (15) |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      318.71      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.02      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.52      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.40      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       48.69      1     0.0000 #
  (21) |        3.84      1     1.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     1969.61     21     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *FN 24 Model adding just adding caseload
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit caseload100

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -4948.374  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4945.4137  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4945.4136  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(32)     =    2285.53
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -4945.4136                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1877

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |  -.0077436    .002196    -3.53   0.000    -.0120477   -.0034395
     cjSenior |   .0222337   .0492094     0.45   0.651     -.074215    .1186824
 probFutPanel |  -.1252379   .1959968    -0.64   0.523    -.5093846    .2589087
   sameCityCJ |  -.0006127   .0294918    -0.02   0.983    -.0584155    .0571901
     cjCirDes |  -.0988205   .1459743    -0.68   0.498     -.384925    .1872839
         cjDJ |  -.0152238   .0736475    -0.21   0.836    -.1595703    .1291226
      cjCoTen |    .008235     .00208     3.96   0.000     .0041583    .0123118
     cjProsPD |   .0433743   .0361181     1.20   0.230    -.0274159    .1141646
        cjT14 |   .0724849   .0319635     2.27   0.023     .0098375    .1351323
 cjLongestTen |   -.043122   .0408611    -1.06   0.291    -.1232082    .0369642
cjShortestTen |   .0107914   .0402803     0.27   0.789    -.0681565    .0897393
       ebDist |   .2007654   .1113924     1.80   0.071    -.0175597    .4190905
     certDist |   .5725741   .1472419     3.89   0.000     .2839853    .8611628
  alignEnBanc |   .3093627   .1542108     2.01   0.045     .0071151    .6116104
     alignSct |   .2120954   .2037001     1.04   0.298    -.1871496    .6113403
    cjAlignLC |   1.061872   .0583422    18.20   0.000     .9475234     1.17622
       amicus |  -.0259899   .0930909    -0.28   0.780    -.2084448    .1564649
 civil_rights |   .0304841    .034532     0.88   0.377    -.0371973    .0981656
   per_curiam |   .0431904     .05168     0.84   0.403    -.0581006    .1444814
        juris |  -.2802616   .0488827    -5.73   0.000    -.3760699   -.1844533
              |
      circuit |
           1  |   .1023459   .1106416     0.93   0.355    -.1145076    .3191993
           2  |  -.0511654   .0730094    -0.70   0.483    -.1942611    .0919303
           3  |   .0929401   .0846967     1.10   0.272    -.0730623    .2589425
           4  |  -.0035874   .0795894    -0.05   0.964    -.1595799     .152405
           5  |   .0401771   .0564194     0.71   0.476    -.0704029    .1507571
           6  |  -.0276792   .0632468    -0.44   0.662    -.1516406    .0962822
           7  |  -.0399521   .0675155    -0.59   0.554    -.1722801    .0923759
           8  |  -.0529663   .0633409    -0.84   0.403    -.1771123    .0711797
          10  |   .1355184   .0684205     1.98   0.048     .0014166    .2696202
          11  |   .1051721   .0807027     1.30   0.193    -.0530023    .2633465
          12  |  -.2638768   .0998898    -2.64   0.008    -.4596572   -.0680963
              |
  caseload100 |   .0097327   .0177459     0.55   0.583    -.0250486    .0445141
        _cons |   -.400019   .1531783    -2.61   0.009     -.700243    -.099795
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   8902    -6088.18   -4945.414     33     9956.827    10190.93
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris caseload100, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0
 (21)  [dv2b]caseload100 = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |       12.43      1     0.0089 #
  (2)  |        0.20      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.41      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.00      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.46      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.04      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       15.67      1     0.0016 #
  (8)  |        1.44      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        5.14      1     0.4902 #
  (10) |        1.11      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.07      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.25      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       15.12      1     0.0021 #
  (14) |        4.02      1     0.9418 #
  (15) |        1.08      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      331.27      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.08      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.78      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.70      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       32.87      1     0.0000 #
  (21) |        0.30      1     1.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     2035.02     21     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *FN 24 Model adding just majority expertise and majority T14
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit majSubExp majT14

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -4948.3064  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -4945.3375  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -4945.3375  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(33)     =    2285.69
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -4945.3375                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1877

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |  -.0077843   .0021973    -3.54   0.000     -.012091   -.0034776
     cjSenior |   .0240915   .0491828     0.49   0.624     -.072305    .1204879
 probFutPanel |  -.1232749   .1956987    -0.63   0.529    -.5068373    .2602876
   sameCityCJ |  -.0004202   .0294917    -0.01   0.989    -.0582229    .0573825
     cjCirDes |  -.0950387   .1457564    -0.65   0.514    -.3807159    .1906385
         cjDJ |  -.0108367   .0734805    -0.15   0.883    -.1548557    .1331824
      cjCoTen |   .0084693    .002078     4.08   0.000     .0043965    .0125422
     cjProsPD |   .0441557   .0361272     1.22   0.222    -.0266523    .1149637
        cjT14 |   .0718972   .0320204     2.25   0.025     .0091384     .134656
 cjLongestTen |  -.0434775   .0408528    -1.06   0.287    -.1235474    .0365925
cjShortestTen |   .0118132   .0402751     0.29   0.769    -.0671246     .090751
       ebDist |   .2061845   .1109377     1.86   0.063    -.0112495    .4236184
     certDist |   .5667607   .1475115     3.84   0.000     .2776436    .8558779
  alignEnBanc |   .3021955   .1533854     1.97   0.049     .0015657    .6028253
     alignSct |   .2187681   .2038086     1.07   0.283    -.1806893    .6182256
    cjAlignLC |   1.061673   .0583465    18.20   0.000     .9473159     1.17603
       amicus |  -.0246347    .093067    -0.26   0.791    -.2070427    .1577733
 civil_rights |   .0319693    .034482     0.93   0.354    -.0356143    .0995528
   per_curiam |   .0423894    .051698     0.82   0.412    -.0589368    .1437156
        juris |  -.2631145   .0375231    -7.01   0.000    -.3366583   -.1895707
              |
      circuit |
           1  |   .1026566   .1104493     0.93   0.353      -.11382    .3191332
           2  |  -.0445864   .0734541    -0.61   0.544    -.1885537     .099381
           3  |   .0921764   .0849251     1.09   0.278    -.0742737    .2586266
           4  |  -.0006734   .0793893    -0.01   0.993    -.1562735    .1549267
           5  |   .0388832   .0564624     0.69   0.491    -.0717811    .1495475
           6  |    -.02827   .0633978    -0.45   0.656    -.1525274    .0959875
           7  |  -.0475306   .0681478    -0.70   0.486    -.1810978    .0860366
           8  |  -.0662395   .0643859    -1.03   0.304    -.1924335    .0599545
          10  |   .1230949    .066524     1.85   0.064    -.0072898    .2534796
          11  |   .1156532   .0770321     1.50   0.133    -.0353269    .2666332
          12  |  -.2738966   .0979907    -2.80   0.005    -.4659548   -.0818384
              |
    majSubExp |   .0067115   .0305344     0.22   0.826    -.0531349    .0665579
       majT14 |  -.0208814    .034458    -0.61   0.545    -.0884178    .0466549
        _cons |  -.3708344   .1557916    -2.38   0.017    -.6761803   -.0654885
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   8902    -6088.18   -4945.337     34     9958.675    10199.87
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct cjAlignLC amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris majSubExp majT14, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0
 (21)  [dv2b]majSubExp = 0
 (22)  [dv2b]majT14 = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |       12.55      1     0.0087 #
  (2)  |        0.24      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.40      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.00      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.43      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.02      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |       16.61      1     0.0010 #
  (8)  |        1.49      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        5.04      1     0.5444 #
  (10) |        1.13      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        0.09      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |        3.45      1     1.0000 #
  (13) |       14.76      1     0.0027 #
  (14) |        3.88      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        1.15      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |      331.09      1     0.0000 #
  (17) |        0.07      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |        0.86      1     1.0000 #
  (19) |        0.67      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |       49.17      1     0.0000 #
  (21) |        0.05      1     1.0000 #
  (22) |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |     2035.01     22     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. 
. *** Quantities reported in the text of the Results section
. 
. *Change in age from 25% to 75%
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. margins,  at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPr
> osPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=(56 70)  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlign
> LC=(0) amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample post contrast(atc
> ontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()

1._at        : cjAge           =          56
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

2._at        : cjAge           =          70
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       12.43     0.0004
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |  -.0276479   .0078414     -.0430168   -.0122791
--------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Change in cotenure from 25% to 75%
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. margins,  at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPr
> osPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=(0 11) ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlign
> LC=(0) amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample post contrast(atc
> ontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()

1._at        : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           0
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

2._at        : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =          11
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       16.49     0.0000
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0235036   .0057881      .0121592     .034848
--------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Change in certDist from 25% to 75%
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. margins,  at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPr
> osPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 certDist=(0.117 0.373) cjAl
> ignLC=(0) amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample post contrast(
> atcontrast(ar._at))

Contrasts of adjusted predictions
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()

1._at        : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .117
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

2._at        : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .373
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------
             |         df        chi2     P>chi2
-------------+----------------------------------
         _at |          1       14.05     0.0002
------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |   Contrast   Std. Err.     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+------------------------------------------------
         _at |
   (2 vs 1)  |   .0373191   .0099571      .0178035    .0568347
--------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. *** Quantities in Figure 2: Marginal effects of distance to higher court when aligned with
>  lower court and not
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. margins, dydx(ebDist) at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLonge
> stTen=0 cjProsPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63 probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=0 am
> icus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : ebDist
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ebDist |   .0531693   .0287484     1.85   0.064    -.0031765    .1095151
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(ebDist) at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLonge
> stTen=0 cjProsPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63 probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=1 am
> icus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : ebDist
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           1
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ebDist |   .1950746    .040746     4.79   0.000     .1152138    .2749353
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. margins, dydx(certDist) at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLon
> gestTen=0 cjProsPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : certDist
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    certDist |    .146529   .0392297     3.74   0.000     .0696403    .2234177
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. margins, dydx(certDist) at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLon
> gestTen=0 cjProsPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 cjAlignLC=1 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Average marginal effects                          Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
dy/dx w.r.t. : certDist
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           1
               ebDist          =        .162
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |      dy/dx   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    certDist |   .3038726   .0550117     5.52   0.000     .1960517    .4116934
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. *** Table 4
. ** F-tests
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. *Acquiescence Only
. test cjAge cjSenior 

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0

           chi2(  2) =   14.98
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0006

. *Deliberation Only
. test cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTen cjShortestTen 

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0

           chi2(  5) =   25.39
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0001

. *Strategy
. test ebDist certDist cjAlignLC

 ( 1)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0

           chi2(  3) =  372.14
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. test ebDist certDist

 ( 1)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]certDist = 0

           chi2(  2) =   27.23
         Prob > chi2 =    0.0000

. 
. ** Pred. Prob, Weak counterjudge
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. *Acquiescence Only
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=1 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=70  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          70
               cjSenior        =           1
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1642798    .017379     9.45   0.000     .1302175    .1983421
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Deliberation Only
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=1 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=0 ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           0
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           1
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1643859    .015285    10.75   0.000     .1344278     .194344
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Strategy, with Alignment
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.041 certDist=0.116 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .041
               certDist        =        .116
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1478955   .0147354    10.04   0.000     .1190147    .1767762
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Strategy, without Alignment
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.041 certDist=0.116 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .041
               certDist        =        .116
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1478955   .0147354    10.04   0.000     .1190147    .1767762
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Pred. Prob, Strong counterjudge
. *Acquiescence Only
. margins, at( sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0  cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjP
> rosPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=56  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=0
>  amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          56
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1862103   .0163896    11.36   0.000     .1540873    .2183333
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Deliberation Only
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=1 cjPro
> sPD=1 cjT14=1 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=11 ebDist=0.162 certDist=0.246 cjAlignLC=0 
> amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =          11
               cjProsPD        =           1
               cjT14           =           1
               cjLongestTen    =           1
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .162
               certDist        =        .246
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2051259   .0193426    10.60   0.000     .1672151    .2430368
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. *Strategy, with Alignment
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.361 certDist=0.373 cjAlignLC=1 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           1
               ebDist          =        .361
               certDist        =        .373
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |    .662462   .0227777    29.08   0.000     .6178185    .7071054
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.  
. *Strategy, without Alignment
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=0 cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=0 cjPro
> sPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=63  probFutPan=0.2 cjCoTen=5 ebDist=0.361 certDist=0.373 cjAlignLC=0 a
> micus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          63
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =          .2
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =           5
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .361
               certDist        =        .373
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2025768   .0180783    11.21   0.000     .1671439    .2380097
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. 
. **In text Discussion and Conclusions Section
. estimates restore mod
(results mod are active now)

. ** Predicted probabilities moving Acquiesence and Deliberation and Strategy variables from
>  low to high (when not aligned)
. * Low, Weak
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=1  cjCirDes=1 cjDJ=1 cjShortestTen=1 cjLongestTen=0 cjPr
> osPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=70  probFutPan=0.143 cjCoTen=0 ebDist=0.041 certDist=0.116 cjAlignLC=
> 0 amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          70
               cjSenior        =           1
               probFutPanel    =        .143
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           1
               cjDJ            =           1
               cjCoTen         =           0
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           1
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .041
               certDist        =        .116
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .1138174   .0363782     3.13   0.002     .0425175    .1851174
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. * High, Strong
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=1 cjSenior=0  cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=1 cjPr
> osPD=1 cjT14=1  cjAge=56  probFutPan=0.25 cjCoTen=11 ebDist=0.361 certDist=0.373 cjAlignLC
> =0 amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          56
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =         .25
               sameCityCJ      =           1
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =          11
               cjProsPD        =           1
               cjT14           =           1
               cjLongestTen    =           1
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           0
               ebDist          =        .361
               certDist        =        .373
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .2538885   .0253388    10.02   0.000     .2042252    .3035517
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** Predicted probabilities moving Acquiesence and Deliberation and Strategy variables from
>  low to high (when aligned)
. ** Low, Weak
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=0 cjSenior=1  cjCirDes=1 cjDJ=1 cjShortestTen=1 cjLongestTen=0 cjPr
> osPD=0 cjT14=0 cjAge=70  probFutPan=0.143 cjCoTen=0 ebDist=0.041 certDist=0.116 cjAlignLC=
> 1 amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          70
               cjSenior        =           1
               probFutPanel    =        .143
               sameCityCJ      =           0
               cjCirDes        =           1
               cjDJ            =           1
               cjCoTen         =           0
               cjProsPD        =           0
               cjT14           =           0
               cjLongestTen    =           0
               cjShortest~n    =           1
               cjAlignLC       =           1
               ebDist          =        .041
               certDist        =        .116
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .4576954   .0751275     6.09   0.000     .3104481    .6049426
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. ** High, Strong
. margins, at(sameCityCJ=1 cjSenior=0  cjCirDes=0 cjDJ=0 cjShortestTen=0 cjLongestTen=1 cjPr
> osPD=1 cjT14=1  cjAge=56  probFutPan=0.25 cjCoTen=11 ebDist=0.361 certDist=0.373 cjAlignLC
> =1 amicus=0 civil_rights=0 per_curiam=0 circuit=9 juris=1) noesample

Adjusted predictions                              Number of obs   =       8902
Model VCE    : OIM

Expression   : Pr(dv2b), predict()
at           : cjAge           =          56
               cjSenior        =           0
               probFutPanel    =         .25
               sameCityCJ      =           1
               cjCirDes        =           0
               cjDJ            =           0
               cjCoTen         =          11
               cjProsPD        =           1
               cjT14           =           1
               cjLongestTen    =           1
               cjShortest~n    =           0
               cjAlignLC       =           1
               ebDist          =        .361
               certDist        =        .373
               amicus          =           0
               civil_rights    =           0
               per_curiam      =           0
               juris           =           1
               circuit         =           9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |            Delta-method
             |     Margin   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       _cons |   .7221837   .0263491    27.41   0.000     .6705403    .7738271
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
. ** PRE
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6035.9362  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =   -6035.93  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -6035.93  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =     104.50
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =   -6035.93                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0086

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
       cjAge |  -.0157101   .0017861    -8.80   0.000    -.0192107   -.0122094
    cjSenior |   .0620736   .0434221     1.43   0.153    -.0230322    .1471793
       _cons |   .8108328   .1087319     7.46   0.000     .5977222    1.023943
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by  -0.52%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,562        493 |     5,055 
         1 |     3,374        473 |     3,847 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     7,936        966 |     8,902 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 90% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 12% of the time

. probit dv2b cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTen cjShortestTen

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -6023.2021  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -6023.1942  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -6023.1942  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =     129.97
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -6023.1942                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0107

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      cjCoTen |   .0078281   .0016918     4.63   0.000     .0045122     .011144
     cjProsPD |   .0418524   .0320894     1.30   0.192    -.0210415    .1047464
        cjT14 |   .0740814   .0273558     2.71   0.007     .0204649    .1276979
 cjLongestTen |  -.1929223   .0329176    -5.86   0.000    -.2574396   -.1284051
cjShortestTen |   .1562271   .0323937     4.82   0.000     .0927366    .2197177
        _cons |  -.2607463   .0296244    -8.80   0.000     -.318809   -.2026835
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by   0.96%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,419        636 |     5,055 
         1 |     3,174        673 |     3,847 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     7,593      1,309 |     8,902 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 87% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 17% of the time

. probit dv2b ebDist certDist cjAlignLC

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5020.2927  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5017.4716  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5017.4715  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(3)      =    2141.42
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -5017.4715                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1759

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ebDist |   .3464792   .0745284     4.65   0.000     .2004063    .4925521
    certDist |   .6502431   .0992511     6.55   0.000     .4557145    .8447717
   cjAlignLC |   1.214081   .0291646    41.63   0.000      1.15692    1.271243
       _cons |  -1.009074   .0302048   -33.41   0.000    -1.068275    -.949874
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by  39.07%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     3,735      1,320 |     5,055 
         1 |     1,024      2,823 |     3,847 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,759      4,143 |     8,902 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 74% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 73% of the time

. probit dv2b ebDist certDist

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -6088.1801  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -5928.3245  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -5928.2514  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -5928.2514  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       8902
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =     319.86
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -5928.2514                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0263

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      ebDist |    .438566   .0697582     6.29   0.000     .3018424    .5752897
    certDist |   1.163201   .0924177    12.59   0.000     .9820656    1.344336
       _cons |  -.5667118   .0262516   -21.59   0.000     -.618164   -.5152597
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by   7.67%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     4,223        832 |     5,055 
         1 |     2,720      1,127 |     3,847 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     6,943      1,959 |     8,902 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 84% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 29% of the time

. 
. 
. 
. ***Table 6
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit if pan_num_gop == 2

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2625.7814  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2414.6636  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2412.7718  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2412.7703  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2412.7703  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       5075
                                                  LR chi2(31)     =     426.02
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -2412.7703                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0811

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |  -.0067486   .0031185    -2.16   0.030    -.0128607   -.0006365
     cjSenior |   .0455813   .0685964     0.66   0.506    -.0888651    .1800277
 probFutPanel |    .118724   .3279705     0.36   0.717    -.5240864    .7615343
   sameCityCJ |  -.0077589   .0406988    -0.19   0.849     -.087527    .0720093
     cjCirDes |  -.1231204   .2014065    -0.61   0.541      -.51787    .2716291
         cjDJ |  -.0300239   .1069352    -0.28   0.779    -.2396131    .1795652
      cjCoTen |   .0019867   .0030239     0.66   0.511      -.00394    .0079134
     cjProsPD |  -.0008759   .0524394    -0.02   0.987    -.1036554    .1019035
        cjT14 |   .0660283   .0472551     1.40   0.162      -.02659    .1586467
 cjLongestTen |   .0222881    .057557     0.39   0.699    -.0905216    .1350979
cjShortestTen |   .0781272   .0598188     1.31   0.192    -.0391155    .1953699
    cjAlignLC |   .6223988    .089608     6.95   0.000     .4467704    .7980271
       ebDist |  -.1836475   .1402289    -1.31   0.190    -.4584911    .0911961
     certDist |  -.1107561   .1836875    -0.60   0.547    -.4707769    .2492647
  alignEnBanc |   .1169546   .2756247     0.42   0.671    -.4232599    .6571692
     alignSct |   .2864628   .3535732     0.81   0.418    -.4065279    .9794536
       amicus |  -.2220444    .137655    -1.61   0.107    -.4918433    .0477544
 civil_rights |   .3524559     .04693     7.51   0.000     .2604747     .444437
   per_curiam |  -.1485297   .0794583    -1.87   0.062    -.3042652    .0072058
        juris |  -.1724215    .057594    -2.99   0.003    -.2853037   -.0595393
              |
      circuit |
           1  |  -.4922645   .1616089    -3.05   0.002    -.8090121   -.1755169
           2  |  -.3578279   .1010352    -3.54   0.000    -.5558531   -.1598026
           3  |  -.0232512   .1111885    -0.21   0.834    -.2411765    .1946742
           4  |  -.4039254   .1170476    -3.45   0.001    -.6333344   -.1745163
           5  |  -.1852373   .0808754    -2.29   0.022    -.3437502   -.0267244
           6  |  -.1787942   .0921455    -1.94   0.052     -.359396    .0018076
           7  |  -.2449053   .0911157    -2.69   0.007    -.4234888   -.0663218
           8  |  -.5671649   .0964121    -5.88   0.000    -.7561292   -.3782006
          10  |  -.2304559   .0992007    -2.32   0.020    -.4248858   -.0360261
          11  |  -.2725672   .1135846    -2.40   0.016     -.495189   -.0499454
          12  |  -.2907262   .1587116    -1.83   0.067    -.6017953    .0203428
              |
        _cons |  -.2985213   .2097824    -1.42   0.155    -.7096872    .1126447
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by  -0.65%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |     3,901         95 |     3,996 
         1 |       991         88 |     1,079 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |     4,892        183 |     5,075 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 98% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly  8% of the time

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   5075   -2625.781    -2412.77     32     4889.541    5098.567
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |        4.68      1     0.6092 #
  (2)  |        0.44      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        0.13      1     1.0000 #
  (4)  |        0.04      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        0.37      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        0.08      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |        0.43      1     1.0000 #
  (8)  |        0.00      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        1.95      1     1.0000 #
  (10) |        0.15      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        1.71      1     1.0000 #
  (12) |       48.24      1     0.0000 #
  (13) |        1.72      1     1.0000 #
  (14) |        0.36      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        0.18      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |        0.66      1     1.0000 #
  (17) |        2.60      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |       56.40      1     0.0000 #
  (19) |        3.49      1     1.0000 #
  (20) |        8.96      1     0.0551 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |      321.96     20     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. estimates store modR

. 
. probit dv2b cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLo
> ngestTen cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct amicus civil_rights 
> per_curiam juris  b9.circuit if pan_num_gop == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2257.2674  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2088.4921  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2087.6032  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2087.6028  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2087.6028  

Probit regression                                 Number of obs   =       3827
                                                  LR chi2(31)     =     339.33
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -2087.6028                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0752

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         dv2b |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        cjAge |   -.005027   .0034691    -1.45   0.147    -.0118262    .0017723
     cjSenior |   .0230745    .078402     0.29   0.769    -.1305906    .1767397
 probFutPanel |   -.874706   .2888448    -3.03   0.002    -1.440831   -.3085806
   sameCityCJ |   .0141281   .0481124     0.29   0.769    -.0801704    .1084266
     cjCirDes |  -.3624935   .2461843    -1.47   0.141    -.8450059    .1200189
         cjDJ |  -.1325164   .1188264    -1.12   0.265    -.3654119    .1003791
      cjCoTen |   -.000415   .0032771    -0.13   0.899    -.0068379    .0060079
     cjProsPD |   .0554223   .0572371     0.97   0.333    -.0567604    .1676051
        cjT14 |   .0970607   .0492612     1.97   0.049     .0005106    .1936109
 cjLongestTen |  -.0308925   .0669688    -0.46   0.645    -.1621491     .100364
cjShortestTen |  -.1369475   .0611709    -2.24   0.025    -.2568402   -.0170548
    cjAlignLC |   .6114166   .1211768     5.05   0.000     .3739143    .8489188
       ebDist |  -.1601995   .2437399    -0.66   0.511    -.6379209    .3175219
     certDist |   .0729701   .3398239     0.21   0.830    -.5930726    .7390128
  alignEnBanc |   .4587469   .2627138     1.75   0.081    -.0561626    .9736564
     alignSct |  -.1790735   .3665324    -0.49   0.625    -.8974638    .5393168
       amicus |   .1943545   .1389255     1.40   0.162    -.0779346    .4666435
 civil_rights |  -.3447276   .0534813    -6.45   0.000    -.4495489   -.2399062
   per_curiam |   .2670646   .0790432     3.38   0.001     .1121427    .4219865
        juris |  -.0111797   .0615956    -0.18   0.856    -.1319048    .1095455
              |
      circuit |
           1  |   1.038457   .1908275     5.44   0.000     .6644415    1.412471
           2  |   .4571847   .1202901     3.80   0.000     .2214204     .692949
           3  |   .3555206   .1432948     2.48   0.013     .0746679    .6363733
           4  |   .3987565   .1244317     3.20   0.001     .1548749    .6426382
           5  |   .2461495   .0872382     2.82   0.005     .0751657    .4171334
           6  |    .221068   .0911176     2.43   0.015     .0424809    .3996552
           7  |   .4897672   .1172903     4.18   0.000     .2598824    .7196519
           8  |   .6309556   .0995427     6.34   0.000     .4358556    .8260557
          10  |   .5186028   .1013922     5.11   0.000     .3198777    .7173279
          11  |   .4583617   .1202867     3.81   0.000     .2226041    .6941192
          12  |   .0566525   .1388163     0.41   0.683    -.2154225    .3287275
              |
        _cons |   .2990637   .2559042     1.17   0.243    -.2024992    .8006267
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. pre

Model reduces errors in the prediction of dv2b by   3.40%

           |  Prediction of dv2b
      dv2b |         0          1 |     Total
-----------+----------------------+----------
         0 |       182        877 |     1,059 
         1 |       146      2,622 |     2,768 
-----------+----------------------+----------
     Total |       328      3,499 |     3,827 

Model predicts dv2b=0 correctly 17% of the time
Model predicts dv2b=1 correctly 95% of the time

. estat ic

Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Model |    Obs    ll(null)   ll(model)     df          AIC         BIC
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
           . |   3827   -2257.267   -2087.603     32     4239.206      4439.2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Note:  N=Obs used in calculating BIC; see [R] BIC note

. test cjAge cjSenior probFutPan sameCityCJ cjCirDes cjDJ cjCoTen cjProsPD cjT14 cjLongestTe
> n cjShortestTen cjAlignLC ebDist certDist alignEnBanc alignSct amicus civil_rights per_cur
> iam juris, mtest(bonferroni)

 ( 1)  [dv2b]cjAge = 0
 ( 2)  [dv2b]cjSenior = 0
 ( 3)  [dv2b]probFutPanel = 0
 ( 4)  [dv2b]sameCityCJ = 0
 ( 5)  [dv2b]cjCirDes = 0
 ( 6)  [dv2b]cjDJ = 0
 ( 7)  [dv2b]cjCoTen = 0
 ( 8)  [dv2b]cjProsPD = 0
 ( 9)  [dv2b]cjT14 = 0
 (10)  [dv2b]cjLongestTen = 0
 (11)  [dv2b]cjShortestTen = 0
 (12)  [dv2b]cjAlignLC = 0
 (13)  [dv2b]ebDist = 0
 (14)  [dv2b]certDist = 0
 (15)  [dv2b]alignEnBanc = 0
 (16)  [dv2b]alignSct = 0
 (17)  [dv2b]amicus = 0
 (18)  [dv2b]civil_rights = 0
 (19)  [dv2b]per_curiam = 0
 (20)  [dv2b]juris = 0

---------------------------------------
       |        chi2     df       p
-------+-------------------------------
  (1)  |        2.10      1     1.0000 #
  (2)  |        0.09      1     1.0000 #
  (3)  |        9.17      1     0.0492 #
  (4)  |        0.09      1     1.0000 #
  (5)  |        2.17      1     1.0000 #
  (6)  |        1.24      1     1.0000 #
  (7)  |        0.02      1     1.0000 #
  (8)  |        0.94      1     1.0000 #
  (9)  |        3.88      1     0.9760 #
  (10) |        0.21      1     1.0000 #
  (11) |        5.01      1     0.5034 #
  (12) |       25.46      1     0.0000 #
  (13) |        0.43      1     1.0000 #
  (14) |        0.05      1     1.0000 #
  (15) |        3.05      1     1.0000 #
  (16) |        0.24      1     1.0000 #
  (17) |        1.96      1     1.0000 #
  (18) |       41.55      1     0.0000 #
  (19) |       11.42      1     0.0146 #
  (20) |        0.03      1     1.0000 #
-------+-------------------------------
  all  |      251.95     20     0.0000
---------------------------------------
         # Bonferroni-adjusted p-values

. estimates store modD

. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/rachaelhinkle/Dropbox/ElevatorEffect/PanelEffects/JLC_Replication_Data/H
> inkleNelsonHazelton_JLC2019_replication.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  25 Jan 2019, 13:35:35
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
